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Why is the Budget 2025 crucial for the share price of Kalyan Jewellers?

Why is the Budget 2025 crucial for the share price of Kalyan Jewellers?

The share price of Kalyan Jewellers has been declining for the past ten sessions in a row, losing around 37% so far this year.

The price of Kalyan Jewellers' stock: Following its peak of ₹795.40 per share on the NSE, the jewelry stock has been steadily declining ever since. On Friday, Kalyan Jewellers' stock price closed at ₹502.20 per share on the NSE, marking a roughly 37% decline in the year-to-date. Ahead of the Union Budget 2025, the jewelry brand is now worth keeping an eye on.

The Government of India (GoI) may raise the customs charge on gold in the next budget for 2025, according to stock market analysts. The share price of Kalyan Jewellers may rise significantly if this occurs. They suggested that shareholders of Kalyan Jewellers wait for a trend reversal and hold onto the stock with a strict stop loss at ₹480. The jewelry stock can soon reach the ₹595 per share barrier on a potential recovery.

Why is the key in Budget 2025?
Telling Kalyan Jewellers' shareholders to keep an eye on the 2025 budget, The founder of SS WealthStreet, Sugandha Sachdeva, stated: "It is anticipated that the GoI will raise the customs charge on gold. Gold prices will climb as a result, and a well-known jewelry company like Kalyan Jeweller will profit from this increase because of its buffer stock. The market may attempt to discount this gold price benefit because of the increase in import duties in the union budget 2025, as the corporation will be able to use the price increase as short-term additional revenue on their buffer stock. 

Outlook for Kalyan Jewellers' share price
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, discussed the technical outlook for Kalyan Jewellers' stock, stating that the company's share price has been sharply declining from its record high levels. With the exception of January 14, 2025, the stock has been declining for the past ten sessions in a row. The share price of Kalyan Jewellers is instantly supported by the ₹500 mark on the technical chart. Since the stock is in an oversold area, a recovery in Kalyan Jewellers' stock is anticipated. Fresh purchases are still not recommended, though. The share price of Kalyan Jewellers could reach ₹575 to ₹595 per share in the near future due to a potential trend reversal.

India's customs taxes on gold jewelry
According to LiveMint's earlier report, the government is examining customs duties on more than two dozen items, including gold. If the recent duty reduction increased consumption rather than accomplishing the declared policy goal of domestic value addition, two people with knowledge of the development stated that the government may increase the levy on the yellow metal.

In order to protect residents from inflation, guarantee adequate supplies of necessities, end duty inversion, and promote domestic production by lowering input taxes relative to completed items, customs tariffs are frequently adjusted in yearly budgets with specific goals. Imports of precious metals, including gold, increased following the July duty cut. Nevertheless, they requested anonymity and stated that the shipment of completed goods, including jewelry and stones, decreased.

On July 23, 2024, the full FY25 budget was unveiled, which reduced the customs duty on gold and silver bars from 15% to 6% and on platinum, palladium, osmium, ruthenium, and iridium from 15.4% to 6.4%. Even though India's gem and jewelry exports fell by more than 23% to $1.99 billion in August, gold imports increased by over 104% annually to $10.06 billion. Although gold is used in modest amounts in electronics, it is also one of the primary inputs used in the production of gems and jewelry.

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