Today's gold price: Analysts predict that the MCX gold rate would encounter resistance at ₹76,800 per 10-gram level.
Gold price outlook 2025: When comparing the returns of other assets in 2024, gold has outperformed the rate of inflation by a significant amount. The yellow metal delivered a YTD return of around 21% in the home market, leaving the Nifty 50, BSE Sensex, and Bank Nifty far behind in the hazardous asset class. As a result, investors and market analysts are busy estimating the profits that can be anticipated from the valuable commodity before the year 2025 officially begins.Experts in commodity markets predict that geopolitical tension will continue to rule the precious metal market in 2019 after controlling MCX gold rates throughout 2024.They claimed that the trade war is likely to intensify as a result of Donald Trump's return to the White House, contributing to the global crisis. One obvious example is his recent tirades against China and the BRICS countries. They insisted, meanwhile, that US dollar rates would stay high. Therefore, gold prices are expected to outperform the Indian stock market indices in 2025, however they might not replicate this performance.
The Trump 2.0 factor
"Trump 2.0 could have nuanced impacts on gold prices," stated Prithviraj Kothari, National President at the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), in reference to the potential effects of Donald Trump's reelection as US president on the movement of gold prices in 2025. The policies of his administration, such as tariffs and a strong inclination toward trade protectionist measures,might strengthen the US dollar. Gold usually faces short-term difficulties when the dollar gains strength, as the commodity becomes more costly in other currencies.
"Donald Trump's administration also brings increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty, which historically supports gold demand," the MD of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited continued. Under his leadership, trade tensions, possible conflicts, and erratic policies may cause investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven investment. Therefore, even though a stronger dollar could present challenges, the general atmosphere of uncertainty might counteract these impacts and keep gold's allure. The balance between these conflicting forces will determine the overall effect.
Will the Indian stock market lose ground to gold?
"During Trump 2.0, especially in the first year of his second tenure, the stock market is expected to receive various hits due to the geopolitical tension," said Anuj Gupta, Head — of Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, when asked if gold prices would outperform the returns of the Indian stock market in 2025. The price of gold typically increases under such circumstances. However, because the US dollar rates won't significantly cool, this increase will be constrained. Therefore, we think that in 2025, gold and the leading stock market indices—the Nifty 50, BSE Sensex, and Bank Nifty—would compete fiercely because both assets will be up against strong opposition from the US dollar, US Treasury rates, and virtual assets like Bitcoins."
Forecast for the short-term price of gold in 2025
"The MCX gold rate encounters short-term resistance at the level of ₹76,800 per 10 gm. When the yellow metal surpasses this barrier, it might approach the ₹78,000 threshold. The critical support for the MCX gold rate is around ₹75,300, although the immediate support is at ₹76,000. The $2,600 per ounce level provides instant support for gold prices on the global market, while $2,650 and $2,680 per ounce present obstacles. Anuj Gupta of HDFC Securities stated that $2,560 is critical for the precious yellow gold on the downward side.
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