Here are some reasons why newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake finds the next parliamentary election so important.
Months after electing a president with a Marxist slant in the Indian island nation's first election since the political and economic crisis of 2022, Sri Lankans will vote in a hasty legislative election on Thursday.
After accusing the country's conventional ruling elite of being responsible for the economic catastrophe that resulted in the country's loan default, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake called for the election and won it in September.
According to public polls, Dissanayake's National People's Power (NPP) alliance has an advantage over the parties that have controlled the island nation since its independence in 1948, despite holding just three seats in the departing parliament.
The importance of the elections and their potential impact on Dissanayake's political agenda for the 22 million-person nation are examined here.
What time does Sri Lanka's election begin?
Local time, polls are open from 7 a.m. (01:30 GMT) until 4 p.m. (10:30 GMT).
How do Sri Lankan parliamentary elections operate?
The importance of the elections and their potential impact on Dissanayake's political agenda for the 22 million-person nation are examined here.
What time does Sri Lanka's election begin?
Local time, polls are open from 7 a.m. (01:30 GMT) until 4 p.m. (10:30 GMT).
How do Sri Lankan parliamentary elections operate?
- The election is supervised by the Election Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL), an impartial organization.
- Every one of the 225 seats in the unicameral parliament is up for election this year. Each member is chosen to serve a five-year term. However, a nationwide list is used to indirectly choose 29 of the 225 seats.
- A list of candidates for the national list is submitted by each party or independent organization running for office. The number of votes each party receives determines how many candidates are selected for the national list.
- In 2020, MM Mohamed, the retired commissioner-general of elections, gave an explanation of the procedure to EconomyNext, a local publication. The article states that the formula used to determine a party's number of national list candidates is as follows: the party's vote total divided by the number of votes cast, then multiplied by 29.
- To gain a seat in the parliament, a party must obtain 113.
- According to the ECSL, 17 million of Sri Lanka's 22 million citizens are registered to vote.
- According to the ECSL, 13,421 polling places nationwide will be used for voting.
- Voters must present proper identification, such as a National Identity Card (NIC), passport, driver's license, senior citizen identity card, government pensioner identity card, or clergy identity card, in order to cast their paper ballots.
- Employees of the police, army, and other government agencies who are unable to vote in person on election day use pre-mailed ballots.
What's on the line?
Dissanayake, who has been critical of the "old political guard," has promised to do away with the executive presidency, which is a system in which the president has most of the power. Despite years of widespread criticism, no political party in power has abolished the executive presidency since it was originally instituted in 1978 under President JR Jayawardene. Critics have pointed the finger at the system in recent years for the nation's political and economic problems.
As part of the bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dissanayake pledged to combat corruption and reverse the austerity measures put in place by his predecessor, Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Dissanayake, who has been critical of the "old political guard," has promised to do away with the executive presidency, which is a system in which the president has most of the power. Despite years of widespread criticism, no political party in power has abolished the executive presidency since it was originally instituted in 1978 under President JR Jayawardene. Critics have pointed the finger at the system in recent years for the nation's political and economic problems.
As part of the bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dissanayake pledged to combat corruption and reverse the austerity measures put in place by his predecessor, Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Alan Keenan, a senior analyst on Sri Lanka for the Belgium-based think tank International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera, "What's at stake is the ability of newly-elected President Dissanayake to pursue the ambitious agenda that won him election in September."
A two-thirds majority is required to modify the constitution, and a parliamentary majority is necessary for Dissanayake's NPP alliance to enact laws.
A two-thirds majority is required to modify the constitution, and a parliamentary majority is necessary for Dissanayake's NPP alliance to enact laws.
He actively participated in the demonstrations against the government of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. When inflation surged and a foreign exchange crisis resulted in shortages of food and fuel, tens of thousands of people flocked to the streets.
Ranil Wickremesinghe became president when Rajapaksa was forced to leave. He saved the nation from bankruptcy, but at the expense of the average citizen. The cost of life for Sri Lankans increased as a result of Wickremesinghe's $2.9 billion IMF contract.
Ranil Wickremesinghe became president when Rajapaksa was forced to leave. He saved the nation from bankruptcy, but at the expense of the average citizen. The cost of life for Sri Lankans increased as a result of Wickremesinghe's $2.9 billion IMF contract.
Additionally, he faced criticism for allegedly shielding the Rajapaksa family, a claim he has refuted.
"The public expects "system transformation," which includes bringing corrupt leaders accountable. Devaka Gunawardena, a political economist and research fellow at the Social Scientists' Association in Sri Lanka, told Al Jazeera, "But there is also a major debate happening about the economic trajectory."
He remarked, "The question is whether Sri Lanka can escape its debt trap while preserving the livelihoods of its people, which have been severely damaged by the crisis and austerity."
"The public expects "system transformation," which includes bringing corrupt leaders accountable. Devaka Gunawardena, a political economist and research fellow at the Social Scientists' Association in Sri Lanka, told Al Jazeera, "But there is also a major debate happening about the economic trajectory."
He remarked, "The question is whether Sri Lanka can escape its debt trap while preserving the livelihoods of its people, which have been severely damaged by the crisis and austerity."
Despite his criticism of the IMF arrangement and his push to reform it, Dissanayake has now declared his intention to uphold the agreement, particularly following a meeting with a visiting team from the international lender in October. However, he has looked for "alternative means" to the harsh austerity measures that Wickremesinghe imposed. He also informed the IMF delegation that his government would try to help those Sri Lankans who have been most negatively impacted by higher taxes.
In order to investigate possibilities like redistribution and a move toward local production, Gunawardena stated that the election also concerns whether the NPP can consolidate its political wins.
In order to investigate possibilities like redistribution and a move toward local production, Gunawardena stated that the election also concerns whether the NPP can consolidate its political wins.
Which political parties are represented in Sri Lanka's current parliament?
In the 2020 election for the current parliament:
"Insofar as it has tapped into public annoyance, the NPP is the undisputed leader. The SJB will most likely continue to be the primary opposition in the interim. However, other established parties, like the SLPP, are probably going to lose another election, he stated.
The opposition is unlikely to perform well, according to Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies.
"The former main opposition, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya [SJB], is unlikely to perform well this election despite coming runner-up in the presidential election," she told Al Jazeera, adding that the NPP has painted SJB and other parties as belonging to the "old political guard."
Consequently, Gamage stated, "it does not seem that their relative experience in governance gives them an advantage over the relatively inexperienced NPP."
Opinion polls: what do they say?
The pollster Institute for Health Policy (IHP) noted in a news release on Monday that respondents were overstating their support for the NPP, which resulted in a higher level of response bias in their survey.
In the 2020 election for the current parliament:
- With 145 of the 225 seats, the right-wing Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), popularly referred to as the Rajapaksa family's Sri Lanka People's Front, has a majority.
- 54 seats are held by Sajith Premadasa's Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).
- The largest Tamil party, Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), holds ten seats.
- There are just three seats for Dissanayake's NPP.
- The remaining 13 seats are held by other smaller parties.
- On September 24 of this year, Dissanayake dissolved the parliament.
In the parliament, which party is predicted to win?
With its increased popularity since the presidential election, political pundits expect that Dissanayake's NPP would secure a majority.
The only issue is how well the NPP will perform, although that is nearly a given. According to the few polls that are currently available and the majority of observers, they are expected to win, said Keenan of the International Crisis Group.
According to Gunawardena of the Social Scientists' Association in Sri Lanka, "the entire political class has been discredited by the economic crisis and the resulting struggle that ousted Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022," which led to the NPP's victory in the presidential election.
With its increased popularity since the presidential election, political pundits expect that Dissanayake's NPP would secure a majority.
The only issue is how well the NPP will perform, although that is nearly a given. According to the few polls that are currently available and the majority of observers, they are expected to win, said Keenan of the International Crisis Group.
According to Gunawardena of the Social Scientists' Association in Sri Lanka, "the entire political class has been discredited by the economic crisis and the resulting struggle that ousted Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022," which led to the NPP's victory in the presidential election.
The opposition is unlikely to perform well, according to Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies.
"The former main opposition, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya [SJB], is unlikely to perform well this election despite coming runner-up in the presidential election," she told Al Jazeera, adding that the NPP has painted SJB and other parties as belonging to the "old political guard."
Opinion polls: what do they say?
The pollster Institute for Health Policy (IHP) noted in a news release on Monday that respondents were overstating their support for the NPP, which resulted in a higher level of response bias in their survey.
Although it cautioned that there is probably a significant margin of error, the IHP still published projections based on polling data.
The estimations indicate that 53 percent of all adults supported the NPP by the end of October or the beginning of November. The SJB, with 26% of the vote, the National Democratic Front (NDF), with 9%, the SLPP, with 7%, and the ITAK, with 2%, come next.
Prior to IHP disclosing this bias, the August poll results revealed that SJB and NPP were tied, with NPP at 28% and SJB at 29%. The SLPP, with 19 percent of the vote, came next.
When will the findings be made public?
After the polling, the full results should be available in a day or two. In 2020, the results were made public within two days of the poll.
For this parliamentary election, 2,034 vote-counting locations have been established.
The estimations indicate that 53 percent of all adults supported the NPP by the end of October or the beginning of November. The SJB, with 26% of the vote, the National Democratic Front (NDF), with 9%, the SLPP, with 7%, and the ITAK, with 2%, come next.
Prior to IHP disclosing this bias, the August poll results revealed that SJB and NPP were tied, with NPP at 28% and SJB at 29%. The SLPP, with 19 percent of the vote, came next.
After the polling, the full results should be available in a day or two. In 2020, the results were made public within two days of the poll.
For this parliamentary election, 2,034 vote-counting locations have been established.
Why does Dissanayake need to win this election?
Dissanayake can issue executive orders, but he cannot enact legislation without the parliament's approval.
The concern, according to Gunawardena, is whether the new parliament would have the authority to hold the NPP responsible for keeping its pledges to the people.
The NPP is "less certain, and less likely, to win the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution – one of Dissanayake's campaign pledges," according to Keenan of the International Crisis Group.
Votes from ethnic minorities, such as the Tamil, Moor, Muslim, and Burgher populations, have been crucial in past elections. These factions would have to back Dissanayake politically.
Dissanayake formerly supported the Rajapaksa administration's campaign against the Tamil Tigers. The Tamil rebels' decades-long violent insurgency was put down in 2009 by Rajapaksa's brother, President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
This election will "gauge the support of non-elite constituencies for the broader coalition represented by Dissanayake, particularly among working people and sections of the middle class immobilized by the crisis," according to Gunawardena.
Dissanayake can issue executive orders, but he cannot enact legislation without the parliament's approval.
The concern, according to Gunawardena, is whether the new parliament would have the authority to hold the NPP responsible for keeping its pledges to the people.
The NPP is "less certain, and less likely, to win the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution – one of Dissanayake's campaign pledges," according to Keenan of the International Crisis Group.
Votes from ethnic minorities, such as the Tamil, Moor, Muslim, and Burgher populations, have been crucial in past elections. These factions would have to back Dissanayake politically.
Dissanayake formerly supported the Rajapaksa administration's campaign against the Tamil Tigers. The Tamil rebels' decades-long violent insurgency was put down in 2009 by Rajapaksa's brother, President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
This election will "gauge the support of non-elite constituencies for the broader coalition represented by Dissanayake, particularly among working people and sections of the middle class immobilized by the crisis," according to Gunawardena.
"People will strongly want Dissanayake to support his rhetoric with reforms."
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